Turkey has a Strong Economy and Solid Financial Markets

“Concerns that the recent failed coup attempt will affect the rising momentum in Turkey’s economical and financial systems are not reasonable. We strongly believe that the likely short-term effects of this failed attempt will not be accompanied by any deterioration in the major economic indicators and further reinforce Turkey’s commitment for structural reforms.” said Serkan Sevim, President of GYİAD.

 

 

In the period immediately following the failed coup, markets still functioned normally. A series of policy measures, such as easing liquidity conditions, was taken by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to encourage financial markets and to prevent the banking system from being exposed to the negative effects. Rumors of capital controls has been strongly rejected by the government officials. Although the markets remained cautious in the beginning, the Turkish asset prices started correcting themselves the following week, as investors regained their confidence.

 

 

Turkish banks have higher capital adequacy and lower non-performing loans ratios when compared to their peers in Europe and emerging markets. Moreover, the banking system in Turkey recovered quickly in the aftermath of the 2001 and 2008 crises and has proven resilient during temporary shocks such as terror attacks and geopolitical risks over the past two years.

 

 

The economic growth in Turkey has been quite resilient to various shocks over the past 2 years, averaging 3.5%. The country´s GDP increased by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period last year. The government has new structural reforms, as well as new incentive schemes for foreign and domestic investors in the pipeline. These together with strong domestic consumption will stimulate the growth and accelerate confidence in Turkey.

 

There are some possible or even likely short run effects of the recent turmoil, such as declines in tourism or foreign investment. Still, the long-run fundamentals of the economy will tend to reassert the short-run disruptions.

 

 

The concern regarding the external financing requirements of the Turkish economy is commonly discussed by the rating agencies. Turkey has so far shown a good track record of paying back its debt (no any state default in his history), continues to find financing from abroad and has strong public finances. The government also has “significant fiscal space to respond to shocks” while keeping its budget deficit below 1%. Tax income supports the budget at the moment and the decreased need for borrowing will keep public debt at a reasonable level.

 

In addition, Turkish private sector have buffers which offset some of the current financing challenges and the banking sector has significant reserves at the central bank which it could use to meet its maturing external debt during a period of shock.

 

 

Turkish political parties from all ideologies, citizens, non-governmental organisations and media have stood in solidarity against the coup attempt. The public demonstrations lead by all political parties in the Parliament and throughout Turkey has shown Turkish citizens commitment for democracy. Turkey is a nation united for democracy, sustainability and stability. Foreign investors in Turkey have declared a statement reiterating commitment for investments in Turkey.

 

With the evaluation of all above facts and as well as Turkey´s low public sector GDP, low budget deficit, low share of external debt public sector debt, good growth dynamics, demographics, and solid banking sector along with a strong commitment to democracy, we believe that Turkey’s investment grade credit ratings should remain as it is.